Beyond the Number: Understanding Job Figures in New Developments
Ascham Grindal Ltd – Insights on Labour Markets, Investment & Economic Development
Why Job Numbers Matter, and Why They Need a Second Look
Delivering commercial and industrial development in the UK is a complex act of alignment. To succeed, a proposal must satisfy planning requirements, meet investor expectations, reflect local economic realities, and ultimately produce sites that work both commercially and socially. Much of this depends on numbers: site area, build cost, projected outputs—and particularly, the jobs a development is expected to create.
That headline figure for jobs becomes a shorthand for value. It is used to demonstrate economic benefit, offer reassurance to communities, and support the case for planning approval. But while the number is important, it is often misunderstood.
Behind the Jobs Figure: A Formula, Not a Forecast
Job‑creation estimates are typically derived from standardised employment density formulas applied to floor space. These figures play a crucial role in planning, but they are not predictions of what will actually happen on the ground. They are indicative calculations shaped by policy frameworks rather than local labour market realities.
The number is not wrong—but it is often just the beginning.
Our Approach: Turning a Static Number into a Dynamic Narrative
At Ascham Grindal, we take the jobs figure and interrogate it through a set of grounded, real‑world questions:
When are these jobs likely to materialise?
What skills or qualification levels will they require?
What wage levels could be expected?
And crucially: who locally can access these jobs?
By answering these questions, we build scenarios & frameworks that show how employment linked to a development could unfold over time. While we can validate the headline number when required, our primary focus is explaining what it means: how these jobs could be delivered and how they interact with broader systems of inward investment, business support, and place‑based economic development.
Our argument is that the jobs figure are contingent on a much broader array of factors, policies, and strategies that is often absent from discussions around development. Being clear on how a proposed jobs figure sits with regards to the current labour market, the expected changes in that labour market and these broader contingencies is critical.
Once these scenarios are established, we support developers and public‑sector partners to understand this wider landscape shaping delivery. As an example we work through:
devolution and evolving local powers covering spatial development and transport
reforms to local government structures and the practical impacts at a local level
changing skills and employment policy such as Get Britain Working Plans, LSIPs
strategic investment priorities at regional level linked to local growth plans, inward investment and innovation
For developers in particular, this represents a step beyond planning. It means recognising how economic strategy, commissioning decisions, and labour market conditions can accelerate—or constrain—the impact of a new site.
From a Single Number to a Place‑Based Plan
By starting with a formula‑based job estimate, we develop scenarios and then a framework which helps craft a narrative that is meaningful, evidence‑based, and aligned with local priorities. Crucially, we support partners to understand some of the practical levers, risks and opportunities that will impact on:
what types of roles are likely to emerge
how local people can be supported into these roles
what interventions may be necessary to realise the full employment benefit
how local stakeholders can adjust commissioning to make it happen
Looking beyond the number reveals the true potential of a development. It converts a planning metric into a pathway—one that connects place, people, and investment in a way that is both measurable and actionable. For Developers and Investors, the value of this is taking a single number and making it into a plan that local areas can use.
If you’d like to understand how labour market dynamics intersect with planning, investment and local growth: our team is here to support, drop us an email.